General News
19 June, 2026
Dry winter and spring forecast
Despite the wet turn to winter on the Central Goldfields this month, the Bureau of Meteor-ology (BOM) officially declared an active El Nino this week.
The BOM’s statement released on Tuesday outlined Australia’s east will see a drier winter and spring for 2026.
The organisation said they had been observing signs of El Nino developing since March, which will result in reduced rainfall, a decline in soil moisture and lower dam levels over the next few months.
This has been based off sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific, with the movement of warmer waters resulting in a shift of wind and cloud cover which can be felt throughout inland Victoria.
“Most models suggest the event is likely to be strong to very strong ... El Nino events usually last 6 to 12 months, though in some rare cases, El Nino has persisted for up to two years,” The BOM stated.
While El Nino does suggest drier conditions, Victoria’s weather is dependent on several other factors.
Throughout autumn this year, Victoria’s west saw much above rainfall average, particularly north of the Great Dividing Range.
The BOM said rainfall changes will not be noticed for some time and won’t be a prediction for how summer in Victoria will look.
“It’s too early to say what summer will be like. The outlook will become clearer by late spring,” they said.
“El Nino can increase the risk of extreme temperature shifts, like heatwaves and hotter days. A warming climate increases the likelihood of hotter conditions, heatwaves, including marine heat-waves and fire weather.
“Most of the southern half of Australia has had above average temperatures so far this year. But it’s too soon to know how 2026 will play out.”
El Nino conditions are likely to persist well into the later half of 2026.
The last El Nino was a moderate to strong event that developed in spring 2023 and lasted into early 2024.
Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of southern, central and eastern Australia with both day and night time tempera-tures likely to be above average.